Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Simulate HIV Test-and-Treat Improvements
This 2-year study is designed to build a computational and simulation model of the full HIV service system using a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. We will use group model building (GMB) and multiple secondary data sources, supported by our recently funded in-depth study of the local T&T service system in Greater Hartford, CT (R01-MH103176), to build the SD computational and simulation model of that system. Using GMB, diverse community stakeholders will work with researchers to develop, validate, and test the model. The study aims are: (1) to engage a group of community stakeholders (N=20) in an iterative, participatory GMB process to develop, refine, and critique a computational SD model of Greater Hartford’s HIV T&T service system designed to simulate community viral load (CVL) over time in order to uncover system performance problems; (2) to combine GMB estimates, secondary data analysis, and relevant literature to calibrate/parameterize and formulate variables in the computational SD model and develop reference modes (epidemic trends) to validate the simulation model throughout the GMB process; (3) to demonstrate use of the SD computational model and web-based simulator app as a pilot analytical and practical tool that allows stakeholders, through simulation, to identify weaknesses and negative drivers of the system and project and compare impacts of different systems-level intervention options to reduce CVL at the city/population level. The SD computational model and simulator tool may be transferrable to other cities seeking to reduce HIV CVL with modifications using local data and stakeholder input.
Margaret R. Weeks, Ph.D.
Jianghong Li, MD, MSc.
Heather Mosher, Ph.D.
Marcie Berman, Ph.D.
Albert Einstein School of Medicine of Yeshiva University
David Lounsbury, Ph.D.